With Alfredo Morelos and Jermain Defoe as their main strikers, Rangers aren’t struggling for goals right now. And with Eduardo Herrera prematurely ending his loan deal with Nexaca to return to Glasgow, Steven Gerrard’s striking options are beginning to stack up. That hasn’t stopped Gerrard from enquiring about other options, however, with the club reportedly targeting Zamalek’s Mostafa Mohamed, according to respected Egyptian TV pundit Haytham Farouk (via The Scottish Sun).
According to the report, the Egyptian striker is being valued at £5 million by his club. For many clubs in the English Premier League, that fee is small. But for Rangers, it is a massive investment. So is Mohamed good enough to warrant such a steep price tag?
Interestingly, an Egyptian TV pundit Haytham Farouk claimed that Rangers were in transfer negotiations on the 8th December, but nothing appears to have developed since.
Would you be willing to pay £5 million for Mostafa Mohamed?
Yes
No
TIF Tactics – How good is Mostafa Mohamed?
The striker has played 1,213 minutes of football so far this season across all competitions. In those minutes he has scored seven goals, bringing his average goals per 90 minutes of football to 0.52. This number is not nearly as high as the likes of Morelos and Defoe who average 0.96 and 1.23 goals per 90 minutes respectively this season. Their numbers are absolutely staggering.
But while Mohamed doesn’t score at the same rate as Morelos and Defoe, his xG (expected goals) suggests he would fit right in at Rangers. xG is a metric used to determine how many goals a striker is expected to score given the chances that they are presented with. Mohamed has an xG of 0.25 goals per 90 minutes, yet scores 0.52 goals per game on average. Morelos’ average xG is 0.80 while Defoe’s is 0.82.
Both of Rangers’ strikers exceed their xG. Morelos scores 0.16 more goals per 90 minutes than expected while Defoe scores 0.41 more goals per 90 minutes than expected. Mohamed exceeds his xG by 0.27 goals per 90 minutes. Should he make the move to Rangers, there is a good chance that his xG would rise to similar levels of Morelos and Defoe, assuming his new teammates could provide him with similar service. An increase in xG should, in theory, improve his goals per 90 metric.
With that being said, until he is playing in Gerrard’s system, it is impossible to know if Mohamed would be an ideal fit for the team. The numbers suggest, though, that given the opportunity, he could be a real asset to Rangers. Especially if Morelos does eventually leave, as he continues to be heavily linked with an Ibrox departure.
(all data and stats from Wyscout.com, accurate at the time of writing)