When Leicester City take on Everton next Saturday in the absence of suspended centre-back Robert Huth, who picked up his fifth yellow card of the season on Monday night, I will finally have the chance to test a theory that I’m finding more convincing by the game.
Amid the Foxes’ miraculously meteoric rise to the Premier League’s summit, attacking accomplices Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez have taken the lion’s share of critical acclaim. Perhaps rightly so, considering they share responsibility for 26 of Leicester’s 34 league goals and have ripped apart every defence put in front of them this season with scintillating counter-attacking play.
In recent weeks, analytical know-it-alls like myself have tried to scratch a little deeper to find the root cause of Leicester’s unprecedented transformation, lauding the unsung influence of summer signings Christian Fuchs and N’Golo Kante in typical hipster fashion or finding room in the limelight for manager Claudio Ranieri – whose career seemed as dead as the Greek economy when he was sacked by the Euro 2004 winners last year.
Yet, it is my hypothesis that Leicester’s fairytale form harks back to a far less obvious candidate. As you may have guessed from my introductory paragraph, January 2014 signing Robert Huth.
That may seem paradoxical, considering Leicester are by no means a formidable defensive unit. In fact, they’ve conceded the most goals of any side in the Premier League’s top 13 this season and leak on average 1.4 goals per match. That’s only 0.5 shy of their average from last term, when the Midlands club finished in 14th place and barely saved their hides from the fires of relegation. No doubt, the most direct source of Leicester’s 35 points this season has been the speed, tenacity and relentlessness of their free-scoring front-line.
Yet, even if it is simply superficial coincidence, the correlation between Huth’s presence and Leicester’s results is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. During the towering German’s 30 Premier League appearances since arriving at the King Power Stadium from Stoke City, the Foxes have won 17 and lost just five.
Even then, all of those defeats were against traditional top-fivers Arsenal (twice), Chelsea, Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur. And even then, one was on his debut and only his second Premier League appearance of the season, whilst another was cut short after 24 minutes due to injury.
Just to put that into some perspective, Leicester’s win rate in the Premier League without Robert Huth is 26%, whilst their lose rate is 29%. With Robert Huth, their Premier League win rate is 57% and their lose rate drops all the way down to just 17%. Likewise, their undefeated rate moves from 71% to 83%.
Don’t get me wrong, statistics can be incredibly misleading. There was a short period in which Manchester United had never lost a game with Tom Cleverly in their starting Xi, but the view that the now-Everton midfielder’s influence on that undefeated record was nothing more than minimal is a fairly unanimous one.
Yet the Huth coincidence surely deserves closer investigation and although the German’s influence may not be as explicit as Vardy’s or Mahrez’s, there is no question that he provided Leicester with something they abundantly lacked upon arriving last January – Premier League experience and leadership.
Wes Morgan may wear the captain’s armband but Huth is certain to be one of the loudest voices in the dressing room, as a veteran centre-back whose 6 foot 3 frame naturally looms over his team-mates. Would it be so audacious to suggest that Huth’s sheer character, will and leadership – both on and off the pitch – has been the subliminal driving force behind Leicester’s incredible rise all along, filtering into the performances of those around him?
Well, to bring this article full circle, I should get some insight next Saturday. Everton are the third-highest-scoring side in the Premier League so it could well become a bit of a basketball match with Vardy and Mahrez at one end and Lukaku and Deulofeu at the other. Intriguingly, only Vardy has scored more league goals than Lukaku, whilst Deulofeu finds himself sharing second spot in the Premier League’s assist rankings with Mahrez.
But it’s not Leicester’s defensive performance I’ll be examining – rather, whether they possess that same comeback spirit without Huth on the pitch. It may seem absurd that such a cumbersome defender can have such a pivotal impact on the Premier League’s most potent attacking force, but big characters are always big influencers in the world of football.
So if Leicester City seem a shade shy of their usual selves at Goodison Park this weekend in the absence of their towering centre-back, don’t be too surprised. Clearly Huth has made a massive difference to the Leicester dressing room and his underlying presence will be sorely missed on Saturday.
Albrighton
Ever heard of any Pearson rescue signing – the Polish Tank – Marcin Wasilewski? Played at Euro2008, then suffered horrendous injuries, was rescued by the Blessed Nigel. He’s in his last year with us and he’s harder than Huth. Lukaku won’t find it easy on Sat.
I’m guessing that unassuming should have been in quote marks there. I’m not sure many of the Chelsea players subject to some of Huth’s more robust defending would think him unassuming 🙂
A friend of mine asked what the difference was last season from where we were bottom until we started that amazing run to safety, and without a doubt I would say it was Huth. He tightened up the defence and brought the best out of Morgan and allowed us to turn those performances where we lost by the odd goal into winning by the odd goal (or more).
I think maybe this season it is more of a team effort. Although Huth is still very important Fuchs, Kante and Albrighton have also made a massive difference. Albrighton in particular has taken his form from late last season and just got better.
It will be interesting to see who plays on Saturday, Wasilewski or Benalouane. I would prefer to see Wasilewski, simply because Morgan and he have played together more, but I suspect that Benalouane will get the nod.
Unassuming in importance, not stature or style.
Short answer No. The following have all been more instrumental in Leicester’s transformation.
Vardy, Kante, Mahrez, Albrighton, Drinkwater, Fuchs, Morgan, Steve Walsh, Claudio Ranieri…