For AFC Sunderland, and their new manager Gus Poyet, warning signs as to what the club’s future might contain were posted all over the country during the past weekend.
But, first and foremost, the dreadful manner in which the Black Cats collapsed upon falling a goal behind at Swansea City on Saturday – before eventually losing 4-0 – will have done nothing to erode any pre-conception Poyet might have held regarding the shallow confidence levels among the men of whom he is newly in charge.
A combination of working under a boss, Paolo Di Canio, who was all too ready to publicly decry his players’ abilities, and a chastening opening to this campaign, have inflicted some predictable mental bruising – yet all is not lost.
The statistic of the moment when discussing Sunderland’s predicament, is that they have now matched Manchester City (1995), Southampton (1998), and Sheffield Wednesday (1999) in enduring the most calamitous eight-game beginning to a season since the Premier League’s 1992 inception.
City’s abject start proved costly. They were ultimately relegated by virtue of having an inferior goal difference to both Southampton and Coventry City. Wednesday never truly recovered from their considerable stumble out of the blocks and finished up accruing just 31 points, five short of 17th placed Bradford City.
Both of those sides extended their initial dreadful form into a ninth match. City didn’t pick up a second point until their 10th outing, while the Yorkshire outfit remained clutching to a solitary point before beating Wimbledon at the same juncture.
Southampton, however, after their own lamentable first eight-game return, earned the most unlikely of draws at Highbury (if Arsenal had taken a maximum point haul from their encounter with Dave Jones’ team, the 1999 Premier League title would have gone to North London rather than Manchester United).
Such a monumental and dogged display, which showcased much of the character on which the Saints drew later in the season, acted as inspiration for an ensuing three game unbeaten run, and then became a positive reference point in further periods of adversity.
When the campaign’s tension-strewn climax arrived, the Southampton team which had spent August and September shipping five goals at Charlton Athletic, and a further three and four respectively at Leeds United and Newcastle United, was transformed. Saints won eleven points from 15 available across their run-in, notably rounding off their escape by comprehensively outplaying Wimbledon and Everton to beat both opponents 2-0. They survived with a comfortable five points to spare.
Sunderland, if they can topple their fierce North-East rivals, Newcastle United, this coming Sunday, can experience the boon that Southampton’s class of ‘98/’99 received from their battling draw at Arsenal. It is impossible to overstate the swell of delirium, optimism, and confidence that can wash over an entire club as a consequence of overcoming their most bitter of adversaries on the pitch.
Indeed, Sunderland have fresh memories of just that phenomenon. Di Canio’s second game of his tumultuous reign took him to St James’ Park, where the Mackems famously out-fought, out-thought, and out-played Newcastle on the way to a 3-0 triumph. That halted a nine-match winless streak, and the subsequent energy was carried over to the following week when a strong Everton outfit were overcome by a single goal at the Stadium of Light.
It perhaps hints as much at the mediocrity inherent in that Sunderland squad, as towards Di Canio’s erratic nature, that the team didn’t win any of their final four games. The six points won in 6 heady days, though, were enough to secure safety.
The Black Cats’ fate once the euphoria of their storming of St. James’ had subsided, coupled with the similarly hapless performances that Di Canio’s overhauled team have routinely churned out this term, suggest that a derby day win could not be deemed an overnight cure-all.
Nevertheless, there can be no better starting point for any potential revival. Toppling Newcastle United, in front of a feverish, baying home support, would conceivably administer a spark off which to thrive for the remainder of the campaign.
Many of Sunderland’s current crop of players are yet to convince a demanding fan-base of their worth. A colossal performance in front of 47,000 exacting eyes, which culminates in a beating of the fierce local rivals, can rapidly change perceptions. Moreover, the boost taken by the men on the pitch from successfully negotiating a gargantuan occasion, while under the harshest of scrutiny, would be immense. Additionally, there would be a happy precedent to cite when inevitable further high-pressure days arise.
As Di Canio will attest, a victory over the Magpies will afford Poyet a quick route to the heart of his new followers. More prosaically, the desired outcome for the Premier League’s bottom team on Sunday will offer simple proof that they are capable of securing victory over a top-flight opponent – and one that is very gradually experiencing an up-turn in its own fortunes at that.
If Poyet requires evidence of the enormous effect that a derby day triumph can have, Joe Royle and Evertonians would not hesitate to recall the 1994/1995 campaign for the Uruguayan’s benefit. The Toffees appointed their former player to the Goodison Park helm after winning just one of their opening 14 league contests under Mike Walker. A visit of Liverpool for Royle’s first match heralded a series of doom-laden predictions, with many home supporters fearing a humiliating night in front of the television cameras.
Instead, Everton swamped their Merseyside foes, and were worthy 2-0 victors. That victory was immediately followed by wins against Chelsea and Leeds, and the season transpired into the last to date in which the Goodison club lifted any silverware – the 1995 F.A Cup.
This generation of Sunderland supporters have watched their team fall out of the modern day version of the top-flight on three occasions. In both 2003 and 2006 they did so by finishing at the bottom of the table, and with a paltry points return. Any sense of foreboding, therefore, is understandable.
There must be incredible frustration, though, among the fanatical Mackems who resolutely turn up and watch their club in numbers above 40,000 that the undoubted potential on Wearside continues to be squandered.
Any prospect of rejuvenation akin to that at Manchester City has theoretically been expunged by UEFA’s ill-conceived Financial Fair Play rules, which preclude the type of cash investment that has propelled the Etihad Stadium outfit to the vanguard of the European game.
A look at the present-day Southampton, however, should be a cause for optimism. It is a little over three years since the South-Coast club, hindered by a 10 point deduction, were missing out on the League-One play-offs. Mauricio Pochettino’s side are now widely regarded to be playing some of the finest football in the country, and they are achieving the results to match.
Correspondingly, when Sunderland suffered their most recent relegations, they were joined in dropping out of the top-flight on both occasions by West Bromwich Albion – a club that despite not possessing the cache or magnitude of the Black Cats is in a far healthier on and off field condition than the Wearsiders.
While it may be a truism that where there is hope there is faith, in the case of Sunderland, and throughout the unforgiving football industry, there is enduring fear – and with reason. When the Black Cats were relegated out of the top-tier in 1997, their destiny was cast by Coventry City’s shock last day win at Tottenham Hotspur. When, four years later, the axe did finally swing over the Sky Blues it precipitated a swift and on-going decline at the club.
On Saturday, Coventry played at Wolverhampton Wanderers in a League One fixture. The point they took from a 1-1 draw left Steven Pressley’s side lying 17th. Myriad factors have led to the situation where Coventry are hampered by a points penalty, playing home matches at Northampton Town, and languishing in the lower reaches of the third-tier. All have post-dated their 2001 relegation. For Wolves’ part, they were competing with the elite as recently as last year.
The relative ease with which Sunderland have, three times, bounced back into the Premier League is no guarantee of a fourth such act. Poyet has a cosmopolitan, highly-paid squad, few of whom will either wish to entertain the idea of pursuing their careers in the Championship, nor sacrificing the bountiful contracts they hold. What’s more, the task of regaining top-tier status once it is relinquished is becoming increasingly severe.
Blackburn Rovers and Bolton Wanderers plunged alongside Wolves in May 2012. On Saturday, Rovers were defeated by Charlton to sit 11th in the Championship table. Bolton’s draw with Sheffield Wednesday, who have never returned to the top since they departed in 2000, was the 11th of 12 league games that the Trotters have failed to win this term.
One position above Bolton, in 20th, are Birmingham City, thumped 4-0 at Leeds United on Sunday. The Blues were relegated in 2011, the same year that they won the League Cup. Wigan Athletic are the F.A. Cup holders, but months after falling out of the Premier League have lost as many league matches as they have won, and are in the no-man’s land of 13th spot.
QPR, buoyed by a summer recruitment drive are better placed for an instant return, as are Reading who occupy the last play-off berth. Nevertheless, it will be a tension wrought year for both.
It is not the path that Sunderland want to be treading 12 months from now. Their game against Newcastle, even with 90 points still to compete for, and as early as 27th October, could dictate what the future holds at the Stadium of Light.
Many football supporters will speak, in the weeks preceding their own local tussle, of how losing is an unthinkable prospect. When the unthinkable does occur, then sights are turned to revenge, and succour taken from a reality check which confirms only three points have gone astray. Gus Poyet’s team, and their embattled fans, have no such luxury. If Sunderland have aspirations to come back and fight another Premier League day, this is a derby match that they really cannot lose.
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