Have Bolton Waited Too Long To Cash In On Their Star Man?

In the last week there has been renewed speculation about the future of Gary Cahill.  Out of contract at the end of the season, the England cap has been much in demand, with the likes of Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester City credited with an interest.  Spurs were certainly interested in Cahill in the summer, and attempted to sign him as deadline day approached in August.  As the deadline neared, Harry Redknapp seemed set to sell Sebastien Bassong to QPR as a deal for Cahill appeared to be close.  But the deal never transpired as Spurs would not meet Bolton’s £13million valuation.

At the time it seemed that Owen Coyle’s side had received a much needed boost by keeping their star defender.  Cahill had scored as Bolton hammered newly promoted QPR on the opening day of the season, and despite defeats against Manchester City and Liverpool, hopes were high for the season after a comfortable Premier League finish and an FA Cup semi-final last season.  But they have endured an awful start to the season, with just two league wins since that victory at Loftus Road, and the worst defensive record in the league (having conceded 31 goals in 13 games).

With the January transfer window drawing ever closer, it seems more and more likely that Cahill will finish the season away from the Reebok Stadium.  The question is, should Bolton have cashed in on him in the summer?

Gary Cahill has become a very decent Premier League centreback, and has earned himself an England cap because of his form at Bolton.  With finances in the Premier League being what they are, Cahill soon found himself with a £20million price tag, as the league’s big teams were credited with an interest.  The speculation had been there at the end of last season, but Bolton held firm over their valuation of Cahill and he stayed.  Owen Coyle could not have expected Bolton’s season to begin so poorly, but perhaps with hindsight, he wishes the club had sold Cahill for £9-10million in July or early August.

Coyle made eight major signings in the summer, spending around £7million to bring Chris Eagles, Tyrone Mears and David N’Gog to the club, signing Darren Pratley and Nigel Reo-Coker for free, and Dedryck Boyata (Man City), Gael Kakuta (Chelsea) and Tuncay (Wolfsburg) on loan.  But an extra £10million would have allowed Coyle to add two or three more players to his squad.

With Bolton struggling at the wrong end of the table, Coyle will almost certainly need to spend money in January.  Bolton are not a club that can afford to spend £10million or more on a single player, so he is unlikely to have much available to him, but the sale of Cahill would give Coyle more funds to improve his squad for a relegation dogfight.

But even with money to spend, Owen Coyle will have a difficult time persuading good players to come to the Reebok when there is a real threat of Bolton being a Championship side next season.  Teams at the bottom of the table will often have to overpay to get players to come in, and it can leave them with financial headaches should they be relegated.  Bolton still have time to save themselves.  Wigan and Blackburn are very poor sides and are unlikely to get themselves out of trouble.  The three newly promoted teams have all enjoyed strong starts to the season, but history suggests that at least one of them will drop back towards the relegation zone.  But it will still be difficult for Bolton to salvage their season.

The reality is that Bolton have not really benefitted from keeping Cahill in the summer.  He’s been part of a defence that can’t stop conceding goals and a team that can’t consistently pick up points.  It’s impossible to say how their season would have gone had they sold Cahill, but could it really have been any worse?  They will still try to get big money for Cahill in January, but with his contract expiring in the summer, and relegation a real possibility for Bolton, it may be impossible for them to get the money they want, and strengthen their team enough to save themselves.

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