Aston Villa could be about to pay nearly three times the value of Philippe Coutinho if they were to activate a clause in his loan contract, based on his scientific market value.
The Brazilian currently has a value on the CIES Football Observatory – a website that has developed a powerful econometric approach to assess the transfer value of professional footballers on a scientific basis – of €10m-€15m (as high as £12.5m).
It’s fair to say that Coutinho has taken to Aston Villa like a duck to water since his arrival in the January transfer window, with two goals and two assists in his four games for the club so far.
If he keeps this up, his signing could go down as one of the best deals of the window, although it hasn’t seemed to have done much to affect his value in the transfer market.
When you consider that he moved to Barcelona for £146m back in 2018, it shows just how badly his time abroad, particularly at Barcelona, went for him.
But according to reports, Villa might well end up paying nearly triple what his apparent value is, with Football Insider claiming that Steven Gerrard’s men have the option to make the deal permanent this summer for £33.7m.
And whilst paying more than double what someone is worth might not come across as the most sensible thing to do, for Villa, the value for him might not necessarily be in what they pay for him, but what they can get out of him moving forward.
TIF Thoughts on Aston Villa and the valuation of Philippe Coutinho…
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Aston Villa are clearly a team who are on the up in the Premier League, with the signings of Coutinho and Lucas Digne big statements of intent, while the club are ninth in the form table since former England captain Gerrard was appointed.
And if they can continue this trend, it’s not unthinkable to imagine them challenging for a European spot next season with a full season under Gerrard.
Given the money that is available for teams making the Europa League (via Swiss Ramble), when you add in things like additional sponsors, ticket revenue, TV broadcast fees etc., if Coutinho can carry on playing the way he has done and help get Villa into that competition in 2023/24, then he might well be able to effectively pay off his transfer fee in one season.
In other news: ‘They’re wiser than that’ – Journalist slams potential ‘foolish’ demand from AVFC board