According to the Daily Record, Craig Beattie has been extremely impressed with Rangers star Alfredo Morelos. He indicated that the player’s goal scoring record didn’t just tell the full story of the striker’s ability.
“The goals Alfredo Morelos has been scoring – not just the numbers but the quality – has been absolutely exceptional,” said Beattie.
It is true that Morelos has scored some absolute beautiful goals this season. His latest UEFA Europa League goal was a brilliant left-footed volley from just inside the 18-yard box. The goal was so precise and so clinical (The Guardian). But just how clinical is Morelos?
TIF Tactics – How clinical is Alfredo Morelos?
Expected goals (or xG) is a term that is used a lot in current football analysis right now. It essentially indicates how many goals a player should be scoring. This takes into account the difficulty and position of the shot to determine the likelihood of the player scoring (Under Stat).
Both this season and last, the player outperformed his xG metrics. With an xG of 26.84 goals, Morelos managed to hit the back of the net 31 times. Up until the Ross County game a few weeks ago, Morelos had an xG of 16.95 goals but had found the back of the net 18 times. He has improved in his goals per game ratio as well, scoring 0.97 goals every 90 mins, ahead of his 0.68 goals per 90 last season (Total Football Analysis Magazine, November 2019, pg 88).
These statistics suggest that the 23-year-old doesn’t need too many opportunities to score. If given half a chance, it appears that he will take it. Beattie’s comments make much more sense when this kind of context is added.
It’s high praise regardless, as the comments came from an ex-Celtic player. Hopefully, for Steven Gerrard, Morelos can continue to outperform his xG for the remainder of the season. If the £6.75m-rated ace does, the Gers will be able to challenge any opposition they face.