There’s been a lot of uncertainty in the Championship following the EFL’s decision to approve a new Sky TV deal, in opposition to a group of clubs, including Leeds, Derby and Aston Villa.
They had threatened the possibility of a breakaway Premier League 2 if the EFL approved the controversial new deal, with Leeds owner Andrea Radrizzani said to be the driving force behind the rebel clubs.
The clubs met at Villa Park on Tuesday to discuss what they would do next and BBC journalist and writer for fcbusiness Magazine, the business magazine for the football industry, Marc Webber, delivered a thread on Twitter to give his thoughts on what could be a huge story.
The meeting is led by what I call the usual suspects. Derby and Leeds were vociferous about the last deal with Sky being undervalued – so it's nothing new for these two to complain about any deal the #EFL has signed.
— Marc Webber (@marcwebber) November 20, 2018
However, this time, they seem to have been joined by more big name clubs in their complaint over this deal. Villa, WBA and Preston are there. If they've also been joined by Boro, Stoke as has been rumoured, a tweak to online revenues won't be enough to quell the rebellion.
— Marc Webber (@marcwebber) November 20, 2018
Webber says that Leeds and Derby complained about the last deal, that led to clubs being allowed to stream games. That was enough to satisfy them last time. However, Webber says that if clubs like Middlesborough and Stoke are part of the rebel group this time, a “tweak to online revenues won’t be enough to quell the rebellion”.
What’s more, he says that if the two Sheffield teams, along with Norwich, Birmingham and Nottingham Forest join up too, the EFL could have a real problem.
Even worse, if we see clubs like the Sheffield teams, Norwich, Birmingham and Forest join this rebel group, then the EFL have a problem which will not go away easily.
— Marc Webber (@marcwebber) November 20, 2018
Webber goes on to say that there are three likely outcomes, with the breakaway league – Premier League 2 – the last option.
He says the EFL could either decide to give a bigger share of the TV money to the rebel clubs, including Leeds. Webber says this would have to be significant.
If they don’t there could be a “messy” legal battle over the summer and he says that he can’t see Sky agreeing to pay more money for a deal they’ve already signed.
The breakaway league is the least likely option but he points out some very important facts. He says the clubs like Leeds have a big global fanbase, just like Premier League clubs.
Interestingly, the Premier League has a new CEO, Susanna Dinnage, and Webber says what better way for her to announce her stay than by expanding the Premier League to include a Premier League 2?
He rounds off his fascinating thread by saying that this is exactly how the Premier League itself started – with clubs demanding more TV money.
Whatever happens, it’s a story that’s going to run. The big Championship clubs aren’t going to just accept what’s happened and Leeds fans will be hooping they get promoted this season and can leave the fight to others.
How will it be resolved? It'll go one of three ways -none are good for the clubs below.
1) EFL give bigger share of the TV deal to Championship clubs – and I mean a BIGGER share.
2) Messy legal battle over summer. Can't see Sky paying more on a deal already agreed.— Marc Webber (@marcwebber) November 20, 2018
Or 3) – A breakaway league, Highly unlikely at the moment, but let me put these three thoughts in your head about a breakaway. a) The clubs above come with big physical crowds and global fans -just like most of the current PL clubs.
— Marc Webber (@marcwebber) November 20, 2018
b) The PL is about to have a new CEO. All new bosses like to make a statement or have a bold vision. The PL needs expansion somehow – what better way to have PL2?
c) If no deal is struck between EFL & concerned clubs over TV rights – where else would clubs turn for a Plan B?— Marc Webber (@marcwebber) November 20, 2018
Remember – this is EXACTLY how the Premier League started. Big clubs feeling they weren't getting their share of potential TV money,
— Marc Webber (@marcwebber) November 20, 2018