Premier League

The Race for Europa League: Who Will Secure 7th Place?

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Though Manchester United did not begin the 2018/19 season as anyone connected to the club would have liked, the Red Devils remain sixth-favourites to win the Premier League. Those who click here can see that the top six of 2017-2018 are tipped to stay in that rarified domain of the elite for another year, leading people to speculate as to which team will finish as ‘best of the rest’.

Ahead of the November 2018 international break, three teams in particular looked like good contenders to get 7th place, which might (yet again) be enough to see a European campaign in 2019/20.

Bournemouth (currently sixth)

It is sometimes hard to believe this is the same club that came within minutes of near-certain extinction just a little over ten years ago. Yet, with Eddie Howe’s men sitting pretty in the top six for much of 2018/19 so far, they are primed to end what has been a heady decade for the club with a maiden European appearance.

Although Bournemouth’s record against the expected top six needs drastic improvement, the ‘Cherries’ never give anything less than 100% against the chasing pack, racking up some impressive victories this season. Arguably the most notable of these was a 4-0 drubbing of potential 7th place rivals Watford back in October.

Once again, it looks as though Eddie Howe’s belief in tried-and-tested personnel instead of breaking the bank to bring in overpriced players is paying dividends. After struggling with injury in previous campaigns, Callum Wilson is once more making a firm case to become a regular part of England’s core 23, ahead of the summer’s UEFA Nations League playoffs.

Ryan Fraser is also putting in some spellbinding performances, with the diminutive-yet-tricky Scot currently striking fear into even the most colossal of defenders.

Everton (favourites)

‘Almost-there-but-not quite’ seems to be the perpetual vibe around Goodison Park. With Everton last winning at Anfield and Stamford Bridge in the 1990s, and not winning at any of the expected top six’s own stadiums since December 2013, there is nothing to suggest that this will change particularly soon.

Regardless, Everton are virtually unrecognisable from the shambles they were last season, yet the fact that they did struggle is partially – in the opinion of some Evertonians – down to an unseasonably early start to 2017/18.

Everton’s ‘reward’ for finishing 7th back in 2016/17 was to begin the following season on 27 July, with a home leg against Ruzomberok in the third qualifying round of the Europa League. The team was unfit and putting in laboured performances during a brutal five-game opening sequence to the new league season. Furthermore, the new record-breaking summer signings were allowed very little time to ‘bed in’ on the training pitch.

As such, few could blame Marco Silva if he was to focus on ending Everton’s 23-year trophy drought, even if that came at the cost of falling short of 7th by a few places. The loss in prize money for league placings would easily be covered by the resources at owner Farhad Moshiri’s disposal, and direct progression to the Europa League group stage via an FA Cup win could make all the difference.

Regardless, Everton are still the favourites to finish 7th, and would be the pick of most neutrals right now. Indeed, with all of the Merseysiders’ return fixtures against the expected top six being played at Goodison Park in the new year, the coming months will reveal just how ready Everton are to break the proverbial glass ceiling.

Wolves (outside pick)

Even though Wolves recently spent the November international break just below the halfway mark in the table, Nuno Espirito Santo’s men are considered by some bookmakers to be the next-favourites behind Everton in the race for 7th.

A recent thriller at Molineux, in which Wolves very nearly snatched a point after being 3-0 down to Tottenham, shows just how fearless this pack of Wolves is. While their defence can be naive at times, solid draws at the grounds of two of the expected top six (namely, the Emirates Stadium and Old Trafford) have also shown the world exactly what Santo’s men can do when focused and motivated to the max.

Perhaps most intriguing at this point is Wolves’ ability to turn a stalemate into a win after being level at half-time. Second only to Arsenal in that department, Santo’s men did this in four of their first dozen league games this season. Also, by luck, fate or ingenuity, Wolves’ loan signings have blended in well with a team unfazed by the step-up in the quality of their opposition.

Raul Gimenez certainly takes the spotlight in that regard. A tally of three goals was enough to see him remain the club’s top league goal scorer throughout the November international break. At the back, fan-favourite Wily Boly returned as one of the summer’s marquee signings, and the Portuguese central defender has been a composed figure under pressure in his first season of English top flight football.

Is missing out a blessing in disguise?

Last season it was Burnley that emerged as the surprise package, finishing 7th, and starting the 2018/19 season just two weeks after the end of the World Cup. This proved disruptive to the plans of Sean Dyche, precipitating a dreadful start for the Clarets, which fuelled the belief of football’s own ‘Eurosceptics’, who are adamant that finishing 7th is in some way worse than narrowly missing out.

Those sceptics would do well to remember that preparation is key, and one needs only to look at Fulham’s run to the 2010 Europa League final as evidence of that. Undeniably, for clubs like Bournemouth – and possibly even Brighton – the chance of embarking on a maiden European campaign is unmissable, and the race for a 7th place finish this season is set to go down to the wire.

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