After Damien Comolli was sacked from his position at Liverpool, the Merseyside club found their transfer strategy under increasing scrutiny. The Frenchman was rumoured to be obsessed with ‘moneyball’ – the theory used to great success by the Oakland Athletics baseball team – that it’s all about the stats. So, using this saber-metric scale based upon evidence, just who are the smart buys in the Premiership this season?
Interestingly, Luka Modric (a Comolli signing) is the 4th ‘best player’ in the league based upon such stats, with a pass success percentage of almost 88%. According to these stats, Chelsea’s high profile and big money chase of the Croatian midfielder would be justified, but it throws up an age old debate as many observers have stated that they believe Modric’s recent form has diminished – and he’s not got an assist or goal for some time now and only has four in total this season.
Mikel Arteta is in at 7th on the list, and this is corroborated in the manner that Arsenal are yet to win without the little Spaniard in the side since he signed. Obviously there are all the big names you would expect in the top 20, but there are a few surprises which potential highlights the unsung heroes of the season.
James Morrison of West Brom is in the mix, with 4 man of the match awards and an average rating of 7.14 in his 28 appearances this campaign for Roy Hodgson’s men.
Another interesting talking point which arises is the fantastic season Newcastle have had, and their very own ‘moneyball’ transfer policy. Yohan Cabaye, signed for only around 5 million comes in the top 25 players, ahead of many more expensive purchases.
Cabaye has 4 goals, 6 assists, not to mention the 80% pass success rate and the average four tackles a game. There are many other Newcastle players up there, all of whom have been signed for relatively small sums of money, for example Demba Ba who was a free transfer from West Ham. This just shows potentially how making astute signings based upon these stats can be the way forward, as Newcastle’s charge into the top four is showing.
While those are the players to have shone, this statistical approach also throws up many issues of overrated players – or perhaps a feeling that the stats aren’t what they are cracked up to be. Jamie Carragher is often considered a rock at the back for Liverpool – despite his increasing years – yet this information is particularly damaging to his reputation as a stalwart of the Merseyside club. Carragher only makes on average 1 tackle per game throughout his 18 appearances, and 16 of these have been starts.
In terms of interceptions per game, the he only has an average of 0.7 per game, whereas the best defender statistically in the league (Vincent Kompany) has over 2. Looking to other teams in the league, Stoke’s Jon Walters is in the lower levels with an average rating of just 6.36 and low passing and aerial results. Yet, the ex-Ipswich man has appeared in every single one of Stoke’s games, showing that he is clearly still highly rated by the management. Is this that the stats are wrong, or Stoke are overrating him?
Grant Holt, for all his plaudits, is only the 198th best player out of the 265 who have played enough games to qualify. In terms of goalkeepers, Shay Given is down in the bottom 50 players despite always being highly rated, and while fans often praise Pepe Reina for his distribution, it’s actually one of the lowest amongst goalkeepers, with only a 60% success rate.
Obviously so much of this is subjective, and people will have different opinions on whether or not these stats have any relevance to performance of individuals and teams. However, it does offer a very interesting insight into performance and perception of certain players, and particularly the approach of Newcastle in the transfer market this season. In other sports it is evident in success too, looking at Exeter Chiefs in Rugby Union who have gone from Division Two to the Heineken Cup in three years.
With Comolli’s firing from Liverpool it is clear their budgeting was all wrong, but the fees and stats suggest they didn’t follow the ‘moneyball’ line closely at all. Therefore, maybe it was as much Dalglish pushing through the signings of players like Henderson and Downing, than it was Comolli.
Who’s been your unheralded star of this season? Have Liverpool over-paid for overrated stars? Let me know on Twitter @aitkenheadhj
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What a poor article. Even with “money ball” there is more than statistics that determine when to buy a player. Also, there are many reasons why one player might outperform his past and one might show up worse off than in their past seasons. “Money ball” doesn’t say that these exceptions will not happen. What it does is try to predict what can happen if all parts to a puzzle remain the reasonably the same. With Liverpool, the players mentioned have not played for a club with as high expectations for “every game”. Also some of them have been played in new positions.
I agree but the stats are interesting to look at, showing some players to be dreadfully overated
I thought part of Moneyball was based on finding undervalued players..
Seems like £35m for Carroll, £20m for Downing & £16m for Henderson that they are exact opposite.
My guess is that for all Comolli’s Moneyball talk these transfers were driven by Kenny’s want for them. For this reason he has played them come what may this season. Bellamy along with Enrique only players that fits undervalued tag and both have performed well. Enrique off the boil recently but goes for team as a whole.