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It’ll be a well-managed ship that wins Southampton promotion

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When Arsene Wenger can have his tenure at Arsenal questioned, despite being in his fifteenth year at the club, delivering 11 trophies, finishing runners-up in five cup finals domestically and in Europe, and finishing runner-up in the Premier League five times, you learn just how fickle football fans can be.

Yet, the Frenchman, who has been experiencing a rather more turbulent season than usual, is still appreciated by those whose opinion truly does count – the powers that recognize achievement – and thus it was no surprise that the Arsenal boss received the Manager of the Month award for February.

In his modesty or perhaps in an intellectual irony only “The Professor” could exert, Wenger laughed off the achievement. I hasten to add, it was his twelve award of its kind and only Sir Alex Ferguson has won it more times.

That’s just one example of the frivolity of football management and this weekend served up a timely reminder that frivolous behaviour from one component can lead to fatal behaviour elsewhere. That is exactly what happened with Andre Villas-Boas. Just over eight months into his three-year contract at Chelsea, Roman Abramovich fired the Portuguese boss. In this case, the foolish hype of an up and coming manager crushed the fervent hopes of all his ambition and plans.

Nevertheless, at least when warranted, the two aforementioned managers got the due distinction and praise they deserved. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for one man on the South Coast, who since leaving Scunthorpe for Southampton in a move Tinie Tempah can be envious of, has achieved the highest post-war win ratio at the club, 65%, and has topped the Championship the majority of the season, yet hasn’t been recognised with as little as a manager of the month award. The Daily Mail journalist Michael Walker hit the nail on the head: “were he a famous ex-player, there would be a hullabaloo surrounding a rising English manager.”

Oh, his name? Nigel Adkins.

However, for Saints and the physio-turned-manager himself, the lack of acknowledgement may well have been a blessing in disguise. Quietly going about their business and silently creeping up the football league ladder from near-on extinction in 2009, Southampton have emerged with the final twelve games of the season left as a force to be reckoned with and one that is now fully expected to start next season in the Premier League.

But, Nigel Adkins’ successes are something to be applauded as they’ve had to compete in particularly competitive scenarios to be in the position that they are in with twelve games left.

Firstly, to get up out of League One, at the second time of trying, they had to withhold a late surge from Huddersfield due to their impressive run of form. The Yorkshire club went the last 24 games of the season unbeaten finishing on 87 points, which would’ve been enough to see The Terriers promoted to The Championship in all but one of the seasons of League One as we know it and is a record high points tally for a team finishing third, even seeing them finish as champions had it been the 2005/06 edition.

Then there is the present campaign and the fight for promotion, which, with just under a quarter of the season left, could still see any two teams from as many as nine finish in the automatic promotion places. The competition is so intense at the top, the normal benchmark of 80 points for automatic promotion, which has been enough in the past four seasons, does not look like it would be sufficient to guarantee a return to Southampton’s home of 27-years – the Premier League.

If it was, it would cast a favourable light on Southampton’s chances: it would mean from the remaining twelve games, The Saints would need just 15 points for automatic promotion and when half of their remaining fixtures are at home, somewhere they have averaged 2.41 points per game – the best home form in the league – they’d get all but one of their needed 15 points on home turf, providing home form continued, needing just 1 from an available 18 on the road.

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Budding Football journalist who blogs at www.maycauseoffence.com/ daily as well as writing here for ThisisFutbol and on www.onehellofabeating.com/ the England fan's page. Outside of writing is more football. I work at Southampton F.C and I manage a men's football team on Saturdays.