With the gap between Barcelona and Real Madrid standing at 10 points, and only 12 games to go, you could easily be forgiven for thinking that the race for the 2011/12 La Liga title is pretty much over. The dominance that the top two teams have shown in this division over the season has been so much so that it is difficult to imagine how the Catalan side could close such a gap. However, the final third of the campaign may not be as smooth a running as many are making out, and there is a good case to be made for Pep Guardiola’s side disrupting Madrid’s cruise to the Spanish Primera title.
First of all, the best time for Barca to make up the difference would appear to be sooner rather than later. Madrid’s final twelve fixtures are comparatively more difficult that their Catalan rivals’. Mourinho’s men go into the next few weeks facing Malaga, Villarreal away, Osasuna, Valencia and Atletico. Barcelona on the other hand do not have to entertain anyone inside the top ten apart from Bilbao in the next six games. If they can close the gap on Real during this period, it leaves them within touching distance before the Classico. Madrid’s record in matches against Barcelona in recent times is particularly poor and, especially considering that the final Classico of the season will be played at the Camp Nou, Guardiola’s men will go in as favourites. If they win this three-pointer, then they have the momentum going into the end of the season and the pressure will swing back onto their rivals.
Another factor to consider is Barcelona’s squad. Up until recently, many would say that on paper Madrid perhaps have the better squad as a whole. However, now it’s clear to see that Guardiola is using more and more players to win matches, with the likes of Tello, Cuenca, Adriano and Tiago all being inducted into the team and given game time. Although they wouldn’t necessarily want to rely on their youngsters in big games or the Classico, the workload in a hectic final part of the season can now be more evenly spread. They no longer have to solely rely on their core players like Xavi and Iniesta to play every minute of every game.
Where Barcelona may have dropped points before from players being fatigued and tiredness affecting the squad, the only real reason they have for not winning games now is a lack of focus, as seen in some away games so far. But as the season draws to a close and Guardiola knows that his side must win every game to keep up the pace with Madrid, it is much less likely that his players will switch off and fail to win games that they should kill off.
Something else which cannot be overlooked is the Messi factor. I know that in recent weeks everyone has been raving over the little Argentinian almost non-stop, but the fact of the matter is that he is a match-winner. The crucial edge may even come down to the game against Madrid, where Messi has a much better record than his counterpart Cristiano Ronaldo. If the game at the Nou Camp is particularly close and goes down to the wire, Messi is the one you would look to to produce the goods and be the marginal difference between the sides on the day, which he has done before. Not only does he provide the creative outlet for his team to set up chances and threaten the opposition goal, but Messi is also the main goalscoring threat without playing as a typical centre-forward. This versatility and interchangeability with his team-mates could be the key in maintaining the consistency of finishing chances, because it effectively lets him do two jobs – assist and finish.
The final, and perhaps most crucial point of all, is that Barcelona have won La Liga with this current set of players before. The last time Madrid won it was back in 07/08, which might not sound like long ago, but this was when Raul and van Nistelrooy were their top scorers. If it comes down to bottle and experience, you would have to say that Barcelona have the upper hand from getting into a routine of winning in recent years. It might already be too late, and they will obviously have to rely on Real dropping points, but for a team of European cup and domestic League holders, a fourth consecutive title is by no means out of reach.
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yeh…keep dreaming…