Every time a new season comes along, bookies start to spread the betting on who will be the next teams to grace the Championship. Often they look for financial clout or strong improvement in the playing squad (Leicester, QPR, Middlesbrough) or a traditionally strong team for the level (West Ham, Newcastle). Sometimes, they even go for a dark horse to try and beat the possible punch (Ipswich). Rarely, however, do they look downwards to the league below; recent occurences suggest they really ought to be.
The obvious example, of course, is Norwich City, who bounced (or more precisely sprung) up from League One to the Premie League in the space of two seasons after stagnating in the Championship for several years. Performing well in the Premier League, the consistency of team, tactics and management with shrewd improvements has sustained their efforts built on selfless teamwork and plenty of endeavour.
Yet, they are a team which for over 2 years now has been used to winning. Winning breeds confidence. When you are used to winning, you expect to win, and winning the mental battle is half the war. Others in similar sistuations have come desperately close to achieving the same feat as Norwich; Leicester were a penalty away from the Championship play-off final the season before last, and if they had kept Nigel Pearson would surely have had a brilliant chance the year after, holding the same momentum and consistency. Equally, Swansea steadily improved year on year before making the jump, and Leeds came very close to the play-offs too last season.
For many teams, the drop to League One revitalises them, fermenting this winning mentality which breeds confidence in the club as a whole. This is vital to making that next step. Teams can fester in the Championship for years, not really making headway here or there before a bad season leaves them plunging into the second tier. However, this gives opportunities to play against comparatively weaker teams (but not weak – League One is a tough, tough league with some cracking footballing sides), which instills confidence and belief. Thus, if the step up is subsequently made, complete with the mental and physical toughness necessary to compete in League One then blasting through the stationary clubs in the Championships, your Coventrys and the like, is no issue.
Consistency is perhaps the key phrase here. Many teams spend seasons chopping and changing, whether it be managers or players, sometimes even owners; there is no opportunity to get on the track, let alone get on the track. Here, promoted teams have the edge on even the recently demoted Premier League teams, who often drop down with a new manager and a disgruntled set-up. Without having to change anything, they have the summer to attract willing players to a confident squad with complete trust in the system that has brought them great success; a steady recipe for success.
There are, of course, other elements; the form of your opponents, injuries and a healthy, healthy slice of luck. This goes without saying, and counts for every team in the Football League. Eqaully, if good form can coincide with a drop in fortunes for your rivals, then all the better. Being successful is all about building a platform which can take into account and hopefully beat whatever is thrown at you; look at Manchester City, who can make a player like Carlos Tevez suplus to requirements (as such) and still be title-challengers.
Still, the momentum trend shows no sign of halting. As this is written, last season’s League One runners-up Southampton are in scintillating form atop the Championship, whereas the Champions Brighton are sitting tight in 5th spot despite a drop in form. Peterborough United, play-off winners, are comfortably midtable and already look like they will far outdo their dismal showing last time in the league. It would be a foolish man who would bet against Southampton in particular being there or there abouts this season.
And who knows, this time next year it could be Charlton, Sheffield Wednesday or Bury (hopefully) next year romping up the table. Don’t say you weren’t warned.