For Scotland, it came down to the final two games in the group. While the Tartan Army travelled to Alicante hoping for a miracle, their minds were also on the game in Kaunas, as they prayed that Lithuania would help their cause and defeat the Czech Republic. But by half-time, it was already over. Spain were two goals ahead, and the Czechs were 3-0 up. Although Lithuania and Scotland both scored in the second half, Spain and the Czech Republic ultimately eased to victory. With Spain having already won the group, the Czechs took second place, sealing a playoff spot. That left Scotland in third place, with a disappointing 11 points from 8 games.
In truth, Scotland had already blown it before they even got to Alicante. A dull 0-0 in Kaunas against Lithuania in the opening game of the group put Scotland on the back foot immediately. Spain were always going to run away with the group, so maximum points from the 4 games against Lithuania and Liechtenstein were vital. But what really blew Scotland’s chances of second place were the two games against the Czechs. A 1-0 win over the Czechs at Hampden in a friendly had given Levein his first win as Scotland manager, yet just seven months later, Scotland lined up in a 4-6-0 formation as they took the field in Prague. It was a widely criticised move, and no-one was surprised when the Czechs won the match. Levein bullishly defended his tactics, but it was a huge error and one that cost Scotland dearly. A spirited home performance almost gave Scotland an unlikely point in Glasgow when they faced Spain. 2-0 down, the team rallied to equalise, before a late goal gave Spain the win.
But the matches against Spain should never have been part of the equation for Scotland. In the home game against the Czechs, Scotland were right to be aggrieved when the referee awarded the Czechs a dubious late penalty, which was converted to give the Czechs a 2-2 draw. Levein spent his post-match interviews criticising the referee, but failed to acknowledge that his team had twice conceded the lead in a match they needed to win.
So Scotland went into Tuesday night’s games hoping for a miracle that would never come. Second place was there for the taking, but Levein’s side managed just three wins and will again miss out on a major tournament, having failed to qualify for one since reaching the French World Cup in 1998. And qualification for the 2014 World Cup in Brazil already looks like a difficult proposition.
Scotland have been drawn in Group A, alongside Croatia, Serbia, Belgium, Macedonia and Wales. Croatia finished second in their Euro 2012 group, and are set for a playoff match next month. Although they seem to have stagnated since famously preventing England reaching Euro 2008, they will be tough opposition. Serbia and Belgium both finished third in their Euro 2012 groups, but Serbia have some top class players, while Belgium appear to be a team on the rise. A young team with several highly touted players (such as Lille’s Eden Hazard and Chelsea new boy Romelu Lukaku), they could be on the verge of becoming a very dangerous team, capable of reaching major finals. And although on paper Macedonia and Wales would seem to be teams Scotland should beat, Scotland lost in Macedonia during the disastrous 2010 World Cup qualifying campaign, and Wales have become somewhat of a bogey team in recent years.
Craig Levein will remain in charge for the 2014 qualifying campaign, and it does appear that Scotland have a new generation of players ready to step up and improve the squad. The likes of Charlie Adam, Barry Bannan, Steven Naismith and David Goodwillie have already started to establish themselves in the squad, with other talented youngsters seemingly ready to move up from the youth levels. Doubts will remain over Levein’s abilities as an international manager though, and it remains to be seen if he will learn from the mistakes of the Euro 2012 campaign. If World Cup qualification looks a tough task, qualification for Euro 2016 may be easier as those finals will host 24 teams, but with it now being close to 14 years since Scotland reached the finals of a major tournament, it seems unlikely that Levein will get much longer to get it right.
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